Some facts and figures
Opening Day, with all its pomp and circumstance, has passed. High holiday in St. Louis, marked with red jackets and Clydesdales. Citizens young and old, rich and poor, trudged once again through the soggy streets to the pantheon of Cardinal Nation. Called to a celebration of spring, and the ritual return of our National Pastime. The denizens were rewarded with a sharp, well played victory that has VEBers salivating with championship aspirations. The scythe of reality, in its cold, cruel way, will surely smite such fantasies.
Now we return to our regular programming.
Now that we’ve seen the Opening Day roster, let’s take a closer look (hurry, before it changes). What lays out is what appears to be the intended opening plan of attack for the 2025 season. Since life itself frequently intervenes, rendering all plans moot right after the first pitch is thrown, this will be subject to (frequent) revision. This disclaimer has been brought to you by Red and Cabbage, a Great Slaw Firm.
The catchers
Pages and Herrera. Who is clear. How they divide the time behind the plate seems TBD. In all likelihood, barring injuries, this will be one of more stable positions in 2025. This year, even one of baseball’s most trivial questions (who is to be the emergency catcher?) is obvious.
The designated hitter
In previous years, this position has been a revolving door used to get veteran positional players off their feet but keep their bat in the lineup, such as Contreras, Arenado, Goldy. This year, it appears this position will be used to keep a young guy’s bat in the line-up. Burleson against RHP, Herrera against LHP with a little Gorman sprinkled in there. If Herrera’s defense at C holds up, Baker may even see time here against LHP.
The infield
The infield is mostly well defined. Arenado at third, with Gorman to scoop up his days off. One difference is expected here. Arenado may get more full days off, less at DH than years prior. Winn at short, and hope he plays every day. Contreras at first on the heavy side of a timeshare with Burleson. Second will be a bit of a revolving door, depending on handedness of pitcher, but Donovan figures to get a decent chunk of playing time here, with Gorman playing some.
The Outfield
One outfield configuration is Donovan in left, Nootbar in center, Walker in right. The other is Nootbar in left, Scott in center with Walker in right. Neither configuration appears to optimize match-ups or emphasize defense, so figure this will be a very fluid situation, at least for a while.
One twist … on some days, the Cardinals could end up with Herrera at C, Gorman at 2B, and Nootbar in CF. This alignment (not to mention Walker in RF), would probably not be viewed as strong up the middle.
The Bench
An interesting mix. The backup C is whoever doesn’t play that day between Pages and Herrera. Ivan may see some turns at DH, as his bat seems real.
Siani looks to serve as a late-inning defensive replacement, mostly in RF, with cameo starts in CF.
I expect Gorman to get semi-regular PAs. Play 2B once a week in place of Donovan, another game at 2B once a week as Donovan slides to LF on Nootbar days off or Nootbar shifting to CF (which I hope will be rare). Gorman could see DH once a week, and could play 3B once a week. He could also DH when Burly spells Contreras at first and the Manager wishes to lean the line-up left. We could see him as a LH pinch-hitter, too, so figure 5 games a week, maybe?
Burly looks to be the strong side of the DH platoon, with some starts at 1B to keep Contreras fresh. Baker and Herrera look to divide up the weak side of the DH platoon. I imagined originally Baker as an RH pinch-hitter deluxe, but what PH opportunities are going to exist? Maybe Scott in a bad matchup. Siani if he gets a rare start. Perhaps with Contreras on the roster, pinch-hitting for the catcher (Pages) could become a thing.
The Rotation
The rotation starts as Gray, Fedde, Mikolas, Pallante, Liberatore with announced plan to move to a 6-man rotation (Matz) fairly quickly. McGreevy is pretty clearly next man up in case of injury. Mathews is not so far behind.
The Bullpen
The eight-member bullpen is led by Helsley as the closer. Romero and King would seem to present a pretty decent left side of the bullpen and could prove nettlesome to NL Central LH hitters Busch, Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Yelich, and pushes Happ to his weak side, too (but they never pitch him right, anyway, so what does it matter?). The move of Liberatore to the rotation, however, weakens what was a stout LHP bullpen contingent.
Maton and Fernandez on the right side will be preceded in games by a cast of revolving RHP characters from Memphis that may change almost weekly. That rotating cast starts with: Leahy, Roycroft. This is not necessarily who won any spring training competition, but a reflection who is conditioned to provide length out of the bullpen, which is usually needed a fair bit in the early going.
Expect to see any combination of the following to make somewhat regular, if abbreviated, appearances in the STL bullpen rotation: Along with Leahy and Roycroft, Munoz, Loutos, O’Brien, Graceffo, Svanson. Once Thompson recovers, he may find opportunities limited unless an LHP gets hurt or falters.
Although I don’t anticipate they will be part of the St. Louis-Memphis bullpen shuttle, fans will almost certainly see Robberse, Hence, Roby, and Mathews pitch in STL this year, even if only in occasional cameo roles. Their own performance, scheduling quirks, injuries or non-performance in the major league rotation or activity at the trade deadline could all pave their way to MLB. We’ll have a deeper dive into the MLB 6-man rotation and the AAA fill-ins in a few weeks.
On the position player side, expect to see Saggese before year-end and quite possibly Chase Davis and/or Nathan Church. The latter two as much (or more) because of the dearth of true outfielders on the major league roster as it is a prediction of break-out type success for these young players.
Roster Volatility
In what could be an unusual twist for the Cardinal franchise that prides itself on stability and continuity, the opening day roster could turn over as much as 40-50% between Game 1 and Game 162. Fedde, Matz, Helsley, Romero, King all have the potential to move by the trade deadline. Arenado may yet find a new home with a contender. Some of the young guys may just flame out. Even Nootbar could go, as the trade deadline may represent a sweet spot where he still has 2.5 years of control, possibly maxing out his trade value. Donovan may be their most tradeable asset. Turnover with two of the bench player slots is likely to be high, as they try to find the right mix. Coming out of spring, eight guys were vying for the last two spots and it would not shock to see all eight cycle through the active roster throughout the season.
The demographics of this roster
The positional side of the roster has an average age of 26.3 yrs. No position player has less than 3 years of control (contract or service time).
The pitcher side has an average age of 29.8 years. This down a full year from last year (30.8). Maton in for Kittredge is a wash, age-wise. Gibson and Lynn departed, but 10 hold-over guys each got a year older, so the total (and resulting average) didn’t move as much as one might have hoped. So, it’s a young-ish positional group and a veteran-ish pitching group. The entire team average age is 28.0. Six of the thirteen pitchers have 2 or less years of control, so this group will continue to undergo turnover that will likely trend the group younger.
12 of the 26 players were originally drafted by the Cardinals. Not inconsistent with a team reliant on draft-and-develop. I’d bet they prefer greater than 50%, though. Only 4 of 13 pitchers came through the Cardinal system. 5 of the players are MLB free agent signings (4 on the pitching side), and 2 players came the international free agent route, which seems mediocre on the surface, but is still better than most MLB teams. The rest is comprised of trade acquisitions (5), waiver pick (1) and Rule V draftee (1).
Next man up, when opportunity arises
The bullpen will be a revolving door, as described above.
The rotation figures to have a bit of churn throughout the season, too. This will be described in more detail with a AAA Rotation Break-down article planned in a few weeks.
On the position side, Memphis has a couple of young-for-their-level prospects in Saggese and Crooks. Don’t sleep on either, although I suspect Sags chances are better to see quality MLB time.
Koperniak and Fermin will likely see time as injury fill-ins. I’d guess Barrero would fill-in if Winn was lost for an extended period.
I show 34 players on the Memphis roster (one is on the 60-day IL, Hence). 18 pitchers, 16 position players. Average age is 26.7 years, which is right in line with the average age for a AAA team. Of the 34 players, 12 were drafted, 1 was an IFA signing and the other 21 were acquired from other organizations, mostly MiLB free agents. I am betting that they don’t particularly care for this ratio. With so many AAAA cast-offs from other teams, they may have a hard time creating a strong development environment, as AAAA veteran-laden teams are not always the most positive environments. Where have we seen this before?
The AA team in Springfield looks to be pretty young (and talented) this year, led by Davis, Bernal, Wetherholt, Hjerpe, Roby, Rajcic. This may be the last year that AAA is full of older AAAA players.