The Cardinals were one of the big winners of the Draft Lottery but that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed a star.
The St. Louis Cardinals finished the 2024 season with a winning record of 83-79 and STILL secured a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft! Thats the good news. The bad news is the draft is still an imperfect science when it comes evaluating and projecting future talent. An early favorite to go 1-1 in this upcoming draft is a name most Cardinals are familiar with. It’s another Holliday (because of course it is.) Ethan Holliday, the younger brother of Orioles up and coming phenom Jackson Holliday, and son of former Cardinals All Star outfielder Matt Holliday.
MLB Pipeline recently released their 2025 top 100 draft prospect list and gave Holliday the following grades: Hit: 50 Power: 65 Run: 50 Arm: 55 Field: 50 (scouts grade on a 20-80 scale for those unfamiliar with prospect rankings.) It’s unlikely the Cardinals will have the chance to draft the youngest Holliday, but should he slide, I would expect the Cardinals to RUN to the podium to select him if he’s still projected and performs to the level of a top 10 selection and available at the number 5 spot. Other names to keep an eye on include: Jace Laviolette OF LSU, Jamie Arnold LHP FSU, Tyler Bremner RHP UC Santa Barbara, Xavier Neyens 3B Mount Vernon HS (my early favorite), and Brendan Summerhill OF Arizona.
However, we, as Cardinals fans, know the story of Delvin Perez. A projected can’t-miss top 10 talent (who some scouts compared to Carlos Correa) entering the 2016 amateur draft cycle, was rumored to have been “popped” for PED’s during the pre-draft process that raised significant questions on draft day, though the allegation was denied by his representation, it still caused Perez to slide all the way to the Cardinals at 23 overall. The Cardinals, almost beside themselves, couldn’t believe they landed what they thought at the time to be a top-10 talent that would provide incredible value.
Unfortunately, Perez struggled to live up to the hype, not being capable of finding any type of offensive traction his first couple of minor league seasons until 2019 when he made the All-Star team in Single-A playing for Peoria where he slashed.269/.329/.325 with 1 HR, 30 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases. In 2020, during the pandemic, Perez lost the entire season of development where he focused on adding strength and size and it allowed him to slash .265/.322/.339 with 4 HR, 23 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases over 98 games and was named a Double-A All Star in 2021. Failing to take any steps forward after the 2022 season, Perez, elected minor league free agency and signed a minor league deal with the New York Yankees.
It’s sometimes fun to play the “What if” game and I decided to look back at the 2016 draft results, being 8 years removed from those selections, and look at some names drafted in the vicinity of where the Cardinals picked. Assuming Perez hadn’t fallen all the way to the 23rd selection and wonder who they (could’ve) taken. Knowing the Cardinals affinity for drafting command-oriented college pitchers, Eric Lauer was drafted 25th overall by the San Diego Padres, Dane Dunning who was drafted 29th overall by the Washington Nationals, and if the Cardinals REALLY wanted to swing for the fences for a prep arm, they could’ve chosen Cole Ragans who went 30th overall to the Texas Rangers. Of course, there is always some futility in this exercise because there’s no telling what these pitchers would’ve become, if anything of significance, in the Cardinals system at the time. Still, a fun game to play if you’re ever bored and want something to distract from day-to-day life.
Long story, short: the Cardinals are in terrific position to capitalize on their good fortunes. However, they must beware the pitfalls that come from making a poor selection that could hinder the progress of the new direction the franchise is heading, especially when that direction relies so heavily on drafting and developing and will see the team return to its perennial contender status once more. Thanks for reading!