I still don’t know why the Phillies would do this, but it’s speculation season
There have been rumors and discussions in the offseason about trading Nolan Arenado to the Phillies, which would necessitate the Phillies trading Alec Bohm. The Cardinals don’t have any use for Bohm, so it stands to reason to think if such a trade were to happen, a third team would be involved.
Now, I want to be clear that for me, this is a hypothetical exercise. I don’t think this is going to happen. I know there’s a lot of smoke around the Phillies wanting to get rid of Bohm, but I don’t honestly understand why the Phillies would do this. Bohm is relatively affordable, probably an average player at least, and on paper, it’s a lateral move. When faced with something that to me doesn’t make sense, I am forced to take a “believe it when it happens” position.
But it’s speculation season and I might as well join the party.
First, who is the third team? Much the same reason I am highly skeptical the Phillies want to trade Bohm for Arenado, I must eliminate teams that to me just don’t make sense. Teams who currently have a projected 3B of at least 2 WAR who had a 2 WAR season last year: Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians, Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Braves, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants.
Some of those teams are rumored for Arenado, but it’s hard for me to see. Red Sox are supposed to move Rafael Devers to 1B, but that would necessitate either Masataka Yoshida or Triston Casas to the bench, and they’re both good hitters. Astros just traded for Isaac Paredes, who is not a bad defender at 3B. The Dodgers have no room for a new 3B and the Padres would need to move Manny Machado to SS, which seems dumb to me.
Bad teams who won’t want a 2-year-plan at 3B: White Sox, Angels, Nationals. Let’s throw in the NL Central teams, who just won’t be a part of this trade. Cubs have a 1st round pick close to the majors who may very well be on the team on Opening Day. The Pirates have a lot of money committed to Ke’Bryan Hayes. The Brewers would be on that initial list if Joey Ortiz was for sure the starting 3B, but presumably newly acquired Caleb Durbin or Tyler Black is the plan if not Ortiz. I fully admit I don’t understand the Reds. Doesn’t feel like they’d be involved.
“Cheap” teams I think we can also exclude: Royals, Rays, Marlins. Teams who have a viable MLB-ready player or prospect fully in the way: Tigers (Jace Jung), Twins (Royce Lewis), Rangers (Josh Jung), Rockies (McMahon), Blue Jays (Clement). That leaves three teams: the Athletics, eager to add salary, the Yankees, and the Mets. They all have reasons to doubt them. Darrell Hernaiz has an okay projection and on the win curve the Athletics are at, it makes way more sense to give him PAs than trade for Bohm. The Mets do have viable prospects to take PAs at 3B in Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuna. And of course one of the Mets or Yankees are getting Alex Bregman most likely.
Okay we have our three teams. Two things I think I need to answer: why are the Phillies doing this and why is this a three-team trade? The only real answer I can think of is that the Phillies want Ryan Helsley. I don’t see why they make this trade otherwise and I don’t see why it needs to be a three-team trade. If the Mets want Alec Bohm, why not just trade directly with the Phillies. Well because the Phillies want to use Bohm to get Helsley. So Helsley, to me, has to be in this trade.
Value involved
So far, we know three players involved in the trade, so let’s examine their value and fill in the rest of the gaps. I have already done the work on Helsley and Arenado. Arenado’s contract is essentially a wash and Helsley has about a $10 million surplus. I know some people think Arenado is underwater and some think Helsley is more valuable than that, so let’s meet halfway and say the Cardinals throw in $15 million of salary, which means now they can get $25 million of value back.
Alec Bohm is projected for 2.7 WAR by ZiPS, and I think no matter your age, you take a plate appearance hit the farther you get from the current year (since as the years go on, you’re more likely to get injured at some point), so I have him for 2.5 WAR in 2026. That’s 5.2 WAR or $52 million. His projected salary is $8.1 million, which means his projected 2026 salary is about $12 million, so he’ll be worth $52 million, but getting paid $20.1 million, so he has $31.9 million in surplus. So the third team needs to provide the Phillies with about $7 million in value and the Cardinals with $25 million. Or maybe the Phillies give the Cardinals a prospect and the other team gives the Phillies a really good prospect.
Athletics
Athletics get: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Raniel Rodriguez
Phillies get: Nolan Arenado
Cardinals get: Griffin Burkholder (PTBNL)
Okay I lied, Ryan Helsley doesn’t actually need to be in this trade. I tried too. I did. I legit only found two possible players the Athletics could have traded and one of them only because he fit the value. Denzel Clarke would be a perfect fit on the Cardinals, but why the hell would the Athletics trade him for two years of Alec Bohm? They only want to add salary, not destroy their future. The second is Evan Kurtz, who I don’t really want. And I don’t think they are interested in trading him either, six months from drafting him 4th overall. (There are ways around it, but he can’t be traded yet either).
When it suddenly hit me to add Nick Castellanos to the trade, it all fell into place. Think of it like this. The Phillies still “owe” because the Castellanos contract really is that bad. In theory they owe it to the Athletics. But the Phillies have four OF prospects in their top ten by Baseball Prospectus. The Cardinals have four catching prospects in their top ten. I chose the lowest ranking of the 10th in both systems. The Athletics are good at catcher in the near term, but lack anyone farther away from AAA. So it fits their timeline too.
Mets
Mets get – Alec Bohm
Phillies get – Nolan Arenado, Nolan McLean, Ryan Helsley
Cardinals get – Justin Crawford
I already did the work, but the Mets as a three-way partner don’t actually make sense. The main reason why is that the Mets are extremely strong in close-to-the-majors infield prospects. Anything they want, these guys are prime trade capital: Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna, Jett Williams. Mark Vientos is at 1B (probably), Jeff McNeil is at 2B, and Francisco Lindor is at SS. 3B is up for grabs, but that’s too many prospects.
Why do I mention this? Well if Arenado is going to the Phillies, the Phillies then have Bryce Harper at 1B, Trea Turner at SS, Arenado at 3B, and Bryson Stott at 2B. Stott’s the easiest one to kick out and he’s projected between 2 and 3 WAR and under team control for three seasons. So…. if the Mets want Bohm, wouldn’t it be way easier for them to just trade them one of their infield prospects for Bohm? If fits way better. Bohm is short-term, allows them to see who emerges (nobody really looks great in 2025), and then they’ll look well set-up.
I don’t actually know how Justin Crawford is valued. He has a concerningly high groundball rate and makes poor swing decisions (40% chase rate), but he’s also got 70 grade speed and might be elite in center. He’s also only 21 next season. So it’s not like he can’t improve. I’m explaining all this to say, if you told me the Cards didn’t need to throw in any money to get him, I’d believe it. If you said we’d need to throw in $15 million, I’d believe you. If you told me this is incredibly light, I’d also believe you. The fun part about this is that I can just say tweak the money to make the values work.
Yankees
Yankees get: Alec Bohm, JoJo Romero
Phillies get: Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley, Rafael Flores
Cardinals get: Will Warren, Everson Pereira, Cade Smith
Some of the names I have to figure out how to value absolutely flummox me. It felt wrong to trade Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley, and JoJo Romero and get back Will Warren, who is not young for a prospect and had not a very good 2024, but also…. that’s probably fair value? Pereira and Cade Smith are honestly not much more than throw-ins from a value perspective, but I wanted more names just for aesthetic purposes.
Don’t sleep on Flores who is not an essential part of the deal in the sense that the Yankees have a few catchers who shit interest the Phillies and I would be surprised if both teams couldn’t agree on one of them. With Austin Wells in the majors, they don’t have the pedigree of the Cardinals’ catching prospects, but they are pretty deep at catcher.
This took me about four times longer than I expected, and I’m certainly not any more convinced we are in for a three-team trade involving Bohm and Arenado.